Hubbert was vindicated when, in November 1970, U.S. oil production peaked; it has slowly declined ever since. The onset of Alaska oil blunted the severity of the decline though imports proved the savior. The peak date of oil was 1970. I had estimated the peak date to be between there and in the late sixties, or '70, with an uncertainty of about three years. So however, the amount of oil turned over. The reversal occurred well, the peak was 1970, but the evidence was not till the next year or two or three when we were on the way down.

The lack of preparation for peak and the growing dependence on foreign oil set the U.S. up for the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979. Hubbert's model indicated that global oil extraction would theoretically peak sometime around 2000. Accounting for oil shocks of the 1970's and the corresponding decrease in oil consumption, Hubbert's model predicts that the peak within the later half of the first decade of the 21st century.